Factfulness is … recognizing when we get negative news, and remembering that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us. When things are getting better we often don’t hear about them. This gives us a systematically too-negative impression of the world around us, which is very stressful. To control the negativity instinct, expect bad news.
Convince yourself that things can be both better and bad.
Good news is not news. Good news is almost never reported.
So news is almost always bad. When you see bad news, ask whether equally positive news would have reached you.
Gradual improvement is not news.
When a trend is gradually improving, with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvement.
More news does not equal more suffering. More bad news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening world.
Beware of rosy pasts. People often glorify their early experiences, and nations often glorify their histories.
ust as I have urged you to look behind the statistics at the individual stories,
I also urge you to look behind the individual stories at the statistics.
The world cannot be understood without numbers.
And it cannot be understood with numbers alone.
The human brain is a product of millions years of evolution and we are hard-wired with instincts that helped our ancestors to survive in small groups. Our brains often jump to swift conclusions without much thinking, which used to help us to avoid immediate dangers.
... We still need these dramatics instincts ...
If we sifted every input and analyzed every decision rationally, a normal life would be impossible.
... But uncontrolled, our appetite for the dramatic goes too far, prevents us from seeing the world as it is, and leads us terribly astray.
Because how should someone at the check-in desk at an airline be able to work out in 45 seconds whether someone is a refugee or is not a refugee according to the Geneva Convention? Something that would take the embassy at least eight months?
Why, then, must they come in such terrible boats? Actually, EU policy is behind that as well, because it is EU policy to confiscate the boats when they arrive. So boats can be used for one trip only.
Les sociétés et les cultures sont en mouvement permanent. Même des changements qui semblent petits et lents finissent par s'additionner avec le temps : 1% de croissance annuelle correspond, au bout de soixante-dix ans, à un doublement ; 2% de croissance annuelle correspond à un doublement au bout de trente-cinq ans ; 3% de croissance annuelle correspond à un doublement en vingt-quatre ans.
Paying too much attention to the individual visible victim rather than to the numbers can lead us to spend all our ressources on a fraction of the problem...
This principle applies anywhere we are priorizing scarce ressources.
Data must be used to tell the truth,
not to call to action,
no matter how noble the intentions.